How we forecast release dates
Everything here comes from WordPress.org's own public data. We do not use rumours.
Where the evidence comes from
- WordPress itself: the official release schedule published by the release team, the update server, the list of past releases, and WordPress's own code, where new themes and features show up first.
- Plugins: each plugin's listing on WordPress.org, and its code repository, which records the exact day every version was tagged, including test versions (beta and release candidates) before they ship.
How a date is made
For each product we measure the gaps between its past releases. If a test version has appeared in the code, we measure how long past test versions took to become real releases. We then count on from the right starting point, ignore past gaps that are already shorter than the time that has passed, and give a most likely day plus a window that covers most of the comparable past cases.
The percentage is the share of comparable past releases that landed in a window like ours, reduced a little because samples are small. It is an estimate, never a promise.
How we check ourselves
- Before a forecast is published we check WordPress.org's listing and the plugin's code repository. If either already shows the version, there is no forecast.
- A release counts as launched only when both agree. A downloadable file alone does not count, because files exist for test versions.
- A passed best guess moves into the remaining window. Impossible dates are blocked. If our first window closes with no release we mark it overdue, and 30 days later we withdraw the page. Every miss stays on the track record.
- Plugin "tested up to" values that are not real WordPress versions are never shown as claims.
- We replay the method on past releases (backtests) and show the results next to the live record, clearly separated.
- Automatic checks run all day and a full audit runs weekly.
Which plugins get pages
Only plugins with at least 1,000 active installs. New pages are added gradually, and pages with too little content are not offered to search engines.
What we do not do
We do not test plugins ourselves, so we never say a plugin is "compatible". We only report what the maker states.